Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Typo taken as fact?

Mistakes happen, especially when one is trying to compile information from a huge number of sources. Such a mistake seems to have turned up in the IPCC's 2007 assessment of climate change.

The mistake was made with regards to the disappearance of glaciers on the Himalayas. Apparently, a paper from 1996 estimated that the ice on the Himalayas (ranging from 200 to 400 metres thick) would be gone by 2350. New Scientist had an interview from 1999 with glaciologist Syed Hasnain which gives a date of 2035, which is likely a typo (or misreading) of the 1996 paper. Regardless, the mistake made its way into the IPCC's report.

Make no mistake, though. This doesn't invalidate the existence of global warming. If one thinks about it, losing an average* of nearly a metre of glacial ice thickness per year (covering the large expanse of the Himalayas) is a staggering amount of ice loss. It's just that global warming isn't enough to result in the loss of 11 metres of ice thickness per year (from 2007 to the supposed 2035 date). ;)

Given the reaction to the hacked and stolen CRU e-mails from late 2009, though, I am going to guess that climate change deniers are going to have a field day with this.

Peace and long life.

*EDIT: I should note that the loss of ice would not be constant over three centuries. The average ice loss would also probably increase with time as global temperatures rise. Regardless, it does provide evidence of increasing global temperatures.

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